Global Trends
International markets, strategic regions, commodities, and technology frontiers
Regional Markets (1Y)
Critical Commodities (1Y)
Strategic Regions
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE. De-dollarization efforts via New Development Bank and mBridge cross-border CBDC. Challenging Western financial architecture.
Metrics: 40% of world population, 36% of global GDP (PPP), 25% of global exports
Key players: China, Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil
Nigeria (fintech, 200M pop), Kenya (Silicon Savannah), Ethiopia (manufacturing push), DRC & Zambia (cobalt, copper for EV batteries). AfCFTA creating single market. China's BRI vs US Prosper Africa vs EU Global Gateway competing for influence.
Metrics: 1.4B pop, youngest demographics, 30% of critical minerals, AfCFTA: $3.4T combined GDP
Key players: Nigeria, Kenya, DRC, Ethiopia
Brazil: world's breadbasket + pre-salt oil. Lithium triangle (Arg/Bol/Chi): 56% of global reserves. Mexico: #1 US trade partner, nearshoring boom. Colombia: clean energy transition. Chile: copper + lithium + green hydrogen.
Metrics: Lithium triangle: 56% of world reserves. Mexico: $800B bilateral trade with US
Key players: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina
China controls 60%+ RE processing, 80%+ gallium/germanium. Western response: MP Materials (US), Lynas (Australia), Greenland/Canada exploration, DRC cobalt partnerships. Pentagon stockpiling. Export controls weaponized by both sides.
Metrics: China: 70% mining, 90% processing. EV demand drives 10x growth by 2030. $1T+ market by 2040
Key players: China, Australia, DRC, Chile
Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand absorbing China+1 manufacturing. ASEAN digital economy $300B by 2025. Singapore as tech/finance hub. Philippines: BPO powerhouse. Indonesia: nickel (35% global) for EV batteries.
Metrics: ASEAN: 680M pop, $3.6T GDP, 6% growth rate. Indonesia: world's largest nickel producer
Key players: Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore
World's most populous nation. UPI payments revolution (12B+ monthly transactions). PLI scheme driving manufacturing. Jio/Reliance digital infrastructure. Space program (Chandrayaan). Defense modernization. AI talent pipeline.
Metrics: 1.44B pop, median age 28, $3.7T GDP, 7%+ growth, UPI: $2T annual throughput
Key players: Reliance, TCS, ISRO, UPI
Technology & Science Frontiers
TSMC Arizona ($40B), Intel Ohio ($20B), Samsung Texas fabs. CHIPS Act $52B deployed. AI chip demand: H100 → B200 → next gen. China's SMIC pushing 7nm without EUV. Memory: HBM shortage critical for AI.
SpaceX Starship fully reusable, $2M per launch (vs $1B Shuttle). Starlink: 6K+ satellites, $6.6B revenue. Rocket Lab: small sat leader. Blue Origin: New Glenn orbital. Space-to-ground services, LEO internet, Earth observation, space tourism.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems: SPARC tokamak 2025, ARC commercial 2030s. Helion: signed PPA with Microsoft. TAE Technologies: hydrogen-boron. China's EAST: 1000s plasma record. Private fusion investment $6B+.
IBM 1000+ qubit processors. Google: beyond-classical demonstrations. IonQ: trapped ion approach, enterprise customers. Quantinuum: highest fidelity. First real applications: drug discovery, financial modeling, materials science, cryptography.
GLP-1 drugs (Ozempic/Mounjaro/Zepbound) = $100B+ market by 2030. Impacts: obesity, diabetes, NASH, Alzheimer's, addiction. mRNA beyond COVID: RSV, flu, cancer vaccines. CRISPR: sickle cell cure approved. AI drug discovery: Isomorphic Labs, Recursion, Insilico.
Palantir: $2.8B revenue, gov+commercial AI platform, AIP adoption accelerating. Snowflake/Databricks: data lakehouse competition. Scale AI: training data monopoly. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google: foundation model arms race. Sovereign AI movement: nations building own models.
Tesla Optimus humanoid. Figure AI ($2.6B raise). Boston Dynamics commercial deployment. Autonomous vehicles: Waymo 100K+ rides/week. Warehouse robotics: Amazon 750K+ robots. Industrial cobots: Universal Robots, FANUC.
Direct air capture scaling (Climeworks, Heirloom). Green hydrogen: $300B+ investment pipeline. Grid-scale batteries: iron-air (Form Energy), sodium-ion. Carbon credits: $2B voluntary market growing 30% YoY. Nuclear SMRs: NuScale, X-energy.