Live DataSources: FRED, Treasury, BLS

Geopolitics

Conflict zones, sanctions, alliances, commodities, and trade dynamics

Geopolitical Commodities

Defense & Energy ETFs
Geopolitical FX Rates

Conflict Zones

Ukraine-Russia
active
Market impact: Energy prices, grain exports, European defense spending, sanctions regime
Watch for: Ceasefire negotiations, energy infrastructure attacks, NATO escalation
CL=FNG=FZW=FITA
Taiwan Strait
elevated
Market impact: Semiconductor supply chain, TSMC production, US-China tech decoupling
Watch for: PLA exercises, chip export controls, diplomatic signals, AUKUS
TSMAVGOSMHFXI
Middle East
volatile
Market impact: Oil prices, Strait of Hormuz shipping, defense stocks, gold safe haven
Watch for: Iran nuclear status, Houthi attacks, Israel-Gaza, Saudi-Iran relations
CL=FGC=FITAXLE
South China Sea
simmering
Market impact: $5.3T annual shipping, ASEAN trade, Philippines/Vietnam tensions
Watch for: Island militarization, fishing clashes, FON ops, ASEAN unity
EWYVNMINDA
Arctic
emerging
Market impact: Northern Sea Route, resource extraction, NATO-Russia friction
Watch for: Ice melt acceleration, military base expansion, mining permits
XLEGLD
Sahel / West Africa
deteriorating
Market impact: Uranium supply (Niger), gold mining, French withdrawal, Russian Wagner presence
Watch for: Coup contagion, mining contracts, China/Russia vs West influence
URAGLDAFK

Global Military Spending (2025 est.)

United States
$886B3.4% GDP↑
China
$296B1.7% GDP↑
Russia
$109B5.9% GDP↑
India
$84B2.4% GDP↑
Saudi Arabia
$76B7.1% GDP—
UK
$75B2.3% GDP↑
Germany
$67B1.6% GDP↑
France
$61B2.1% GDP↑
Japan
$50B1.2% GDP↑
South Korea
$46B2.7% GDP↑

Sanctions Tracker

Russia
EnergyFinanceTechnologyLuxuryShipping
Measures: SWIFT exclusion, oil price cap ($60/bbl), chip export ban, asset freezes ($300B+), tanker sanctions
Effectiveness: Mixed — energy revenue down 40%, but shadow fleet circumvents cap. Tech sector degrading long-term.
Evasion: India, China, Turkey buying discounted oil. UAE as financial intermediary.
China (targeted)
SemiconductorsAIDefenseBiotech
Measures: ASML EUV ban, entity list (200+ firms), outbound investment screening, Huawei restrictions
Effectiveness: Slowing AI chip access. Driving massive domestic investment (SMIC, CXMT). 3-5 year tech gap widening.
Evasion: Chip smuggling via Southeast Asia. Stockpiling pre-ban. Domestic alternatives accelerating.
Iran
OilFinanceMilitaryNuclear
Measures: Oil export restrictions, SWIFT isolation, IRGC designations, shipping sanctions
Effectiveness: Limited — 1.5M bbl/day still exported via shadow fleet. China buys 90% of Iran oil.
Evasion: Ship-to-ship transfers, flag switching, Chinese teapot refineries.
North Korea
FinanceMilitaryCyber
Measures: Full trade embargo, banking isolation, crypto theft enforcement
Effectiveness: Regime survives via crypto ($3B+ stolen), China trade, cyber operations.
Evasion: Lazarus Group cybertheft, China border trade, Russia labor agreements.

Alliances & Power Blocs

NATO (32 members)

Purpose: Collective defense

Key developments: Sweden/Finland accession, 2% GDP spending push, Eastern flank buildup

Tensions: Turkey blocking, burden sharing disputes, Trump 2.0 uncertainty

AUKUS

Purpose: Indo-Pacific security (US-UK-Australia)

Key developments: Nuclear submarine deal ($368B), AI/quantum/hypersonics cooperation

Tensions: France alienation, cost overruns, timeline concerns

Quad (US-Japan-India-Australia)

Purpose: Indo-Pacific counterbalance to China

Key developments: Supply chain mapping, tech cooperation, maritime domain awareness

Tensions: India's strategic autonomy, Russia relationship

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation)

Purpose: China-Russia led security bloc

Key developments: Iran, Belarus membership. Counter-NATO positioning. Central Asia influence.

Tensions: India-China border disputes, Pakistan instability

Trade Dynamics

US-China Trade War 2.0
critical

145% tariffs on Chinese goods, EV battery restrictions, TikTok ban saga, agricultural purchase shortfalls. China retaliating with rare earth export controls and gallium/germanium restrictions.

TariffsTech BanRare EarthEVs
EU Carbon Border Tax (CBAM)
high

Carbon import tariffs on steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizer, hydrogen. Phase-in 2026-2034. Reshaping global trade flows — developing nations most affected.

ClimateTradeIndustryEU
RCEP Trade Bloc
high

World's largest trade agreement — 15 nations, 30% of global GDP. China-Japan-Korea-ASEAN economic integration deepening. US excluded.

AsiaTradeSupply Chain
Nearshoring / Friendshoring
high

Mexico now #1 US trade partner (passed China). Vietnam, India, Indonesia absorbing factory relocations. Eastern Europe for EU. $2T+ supply chain restructuring underway.

Supply ChainMexicoIndiaVietnam
CHIPS Act & Tech Sovereignty
critical

US $52B CHIPS Act, EU Chips Act ($47B), Japan $13B, India $10B. Race to onshore semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC Arizona, Intel Ohio, Samsung Texas.

SemiconductorsIndustrial PolicySovereignty
Energy Transition Trade
critical

China dominates solar (80%), batteries (75%), rare earth (90% processing). IRA creating US green manufacturing. EU Green Deal Industrial Plan. New dependencies replacing oil.

Clean EnergyMineralsIRA